YOUR PREDICTION MARKET BOOK
Where your edge lives.
Fee-aware P&L across Kalshi and Polymarket, reconciled against each platform.
Net P&L after fees
+$922.22
333 resolved · 10 open
Win rate
58.0%
193 wins · 140 losses
Expectancy
+$2.77
Avg win $32.35 · loss −$38.00
ROI on cost
+4.2%
$22,058.90 deployed
Your reads
Slightly overconfident
Expected 64% · won 58%
Fees paid
$300.97
1.36% of cost · drawdown $1,248.41
Equity curve
Cumulative realized P&L after fees, built from reconciled fills and settlements.
Slightly overconfident
You expected to win 64% of the time and won 58%.
You expected to win64%
You actually won58%
Market priced it at56%
Positions checked263
Economics81 positions · win 58% · ROI +19.1%+$1,056.65Crypto65 positions · win 52% · ROI −29.2%−$1,554.23Politics64 positions · win 70% · ROI +10.2%+$535.12Sports74 positions · win 61% · ROI +13.5%+$472.31Climate and Weather28 positions · win 32% · ROI +0.8%+$10.46Financials21 positions · win 62% · ROI +35.3%+$401.91
Edge by holding time
ROI after fees for each hold duration. Is short-term or patient trading driving results?
< 1h60 pos.win 50%−$9.05 avg
1–6h76 pos.win 55%−$3.92 avg
6–24h83 pos.win 52%+$0.29 avg
1–7d87 pos.win 63%+$8.55 avg
> 7d27 pos.win 85%+$36.87 avg
Recent positions
Grouped automatically from fills. Platform shown on every row.
| Market | Platform | Side | Entry | Your est. | P&L after fees | Matches? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin above $120k on Friday?Crypto · Bitcoin above · Oct 10, 6:53 AM | PPolymarket | NO | 66.5¢ | 93% | open | Pending |
| Bitcoin above $145k on Friday?Crypto · Bitcoin above · Oct 10, 4:54 AM | PPolymarket | YES | 81.5¢ | 88% | +$24.97 | Pending |
| Bitcoin above $140k on Friday?Crypto · Bitcoin above · Oct 9, 9:15 PM | PPolymarket | YES | 41¢ | 44% | open | Pending |
| Will the high in NYC be above 89°F?Climate and Weather · NYC daily high · Oct 9, 7:11 PM | KKalshi | NO | 62¢ | 66% | open | Pending |
| BUF vs BAL: will BUF win?Sports · NFL game winner · Oct 9, 11:12 AM · flagged | KKalshi | NO | 52¢ | 59% | +$3.42 | Matched |
| Will the high in NYC be above 88°F?Climate and Weather · NYC daily high · Oct 9, 8:59 AM | KKalshi | NO | 1¢ | 12% | open | Pending |
| Will KC win their next game?Sports · NFL · Oct 8, 2:52 PM | PPolymarket | YES | 2¢ | 9% | open | Pending |
| Will approval be above 43% on the tracker?Politics · Presidential approval · Oct 8, 4:35 AM · flagged | KKalshi | YES | 63.5¢ | 77% | −$107.46 | Matched |
What the book is saying
Findings with enough positions behind them.
Financials is your strongest category: +35.3% ROI after fees over 21 positions.
Crypto is costing you $1,554.23 (−29.2% ROI) across 65 positions.
In Crypto you expect to win 81% of the time but win 48%.
Edge comes from > 7d holds (+39.0% ROI). < 1h holds lose 14.4%.
Positions opened within 30 minutes of a loss average −$7.88 vs +$4.74 otherwise (52 flagged).
You expected to beat the market price by 8 pts; you actually beat it by 2 pts.